From Growth to Maturity: the new cycle of logistics-industrial funds

OVERVIEW: A market in maturation, not exhaustion

The Real Estate Investment Fund (FII) market ends 2025 as one of the major winners in the repricing of real assets in Brazil. The IFIX index has accumulated a gain of +15% year-to-date through September 2025, with particular strength in industrial logistics funds, which rose +22% over the same period, driven by a combination of controlled inflation, interest rate stability and real growth in demand for industrial space.

On one hand, the Metro Quadrado portal (Oct/2025) indicates that the country is set to reach a historic record of 4.5 million m² of new logistics deliveries this year, reflecting strong demand and investor confidence. On the other hand, a recent report — “Warehouses: stock delivery in SP hits a peak and is now expected to ease” — shows that the pace of new launches is likely to slow down starting in 2026, signaling a more selective, rational, and efficient market.

In short, both articles tell the same story from different perspectives. The first reveals the power of a sector that has achieved scale, while the second shows the transition to a stage of quality and efficiency, where high-standard assets — well-located, sustainable, and managed with operational discipline — begin to capture the flow of capital and appreciation.

In practice, this means that the Brazilian industrial logistics market is moving away from a race for square footage and consolidating into a game of efficiency, structure, and long-term vision. This is where the disciplined investor should be positioned: alongside managers capable of transforming physical assets into platforms for continuous value creation.

This is the path we have been following at inVista. And it is precisely why I maintain that the industrial logistics cycle is not at its end; it is simply entering its most intelligent phase. Yes, we will face pressures — structural inflation may put pressure on operating costs, and competition between funds is likely to intensify. However, for those who understand this dynamic and position themselves correctly, these are precisely the conditions that separate the winners from those less prepared for the new discipline of the cycle.

CORE THESIS: Industrial real estate as a structural pillar for institutional portfolios

The industrial logistics segment has established itself as a core asset within long-term real estate portfolios. This transformation is driven by four structural forces:

1. Reindustrialization and nearshoring: global companies are bringing part of their production to Brazil, reducing dependence on external supply chains.
2. Consolidated e-commerce: digital retail maintains a rapid pace and requires logistics infrastructure close to major hubs.
3. ESG and operational efficiency: multinational tenants prioritize assets with environmental certifications and integrated technology.
4. Rising construction costs: the increase in replacement value enhances the attractiveness of already completed assets.

Even with record deliveries in 2025, the market remains balanced and healthy. Key logistics hubs—Atibaia, Jarinu, Cajamar, Jundiaí, and Extrema—are operating with vacancy rates below 3%, and new contracts are being signed with long terms and adjustments linked to the IPCA, reinforcing cash flow stability and the sector's appreciation potential.

According to Cushman & Wakefield (Q3/2025), DAACAP / European Logistics Report (Sept/2025), and Metro Quadrado (Oct/2025), while the US is experiencing a cycle peak with an average vacancy of 7.4% and Europe is operating at 5.4% vacancy, Brazil maintains its main logistics hubs below 3.0%. This structural difference is no accident—it is the result of restricted supply and genuine demand. On the international stage, the vacancy rate in Brazil's leading hubs remains competitive.

CASE STUDY: inVista and IBBP11 - Why the Model Matters

The inVista Brazilian Business Park FII (IBBP11) is an example of how real estate investment can combine solid operational fundamentals, positive impact, and institutional discipline.

The fund operates in partnership with the Brazilian Business Park (BBP), the largest industrial complex in Latin America, located along the main logistics corridors of the state of São Paulo. This synergy allows inVista to operate as a true ecosystem manager, rather than just a property owner.

BBP offers an integrated infrastructure that transforms every industrial park into a high-performance “corporate city.” Key highlights include:

• Dedicated electrical substation, data center and 100 km fiber optic network;
• Sanitation and wastewater treatment management (7 million liters/month);
• 24/7 restaurants, armed security, corporate transportation, and shared HR services;
• LEED Gold® certification, with a reduction of up to 35% in energy consumption and 93% waste recycling;
• Robust environmental programs, with 27,000 trees planted and 300,000 m² reforested.

This structure creates a rare competitive advantage: global tenant loyalty and long-term contracts, sustaining 100% physical occupancy and full payment complianceThe portfolio houses 23 multinational companies from sectors such as healthcare, automotive, and technology, with an average contract term of 9 years and revenues indexed to the IPCA.

The combination of 100% occupancy, full payment compliance, and inflation protection through long-term contracts adjusted by IGP-M or IPCA is the validation the market provides: institutional capital follows this structure because it delivers.

More than just a "brick-and-mortar" fund, IBBP11 is a platform that translates the inVista philosophy: building value in a sustainable and predictable way, combining engineering, governance, and purpose.

EFFICIENCY, PURPOSE, AND GOVERNANCE: ESG as Value Architecture in IBBP11

Beyond meeting sustainability criteria, IBBP11 integrates ESG into its economic model. Each asset is conceived under environmental, social, and governance metrics that directly impact operational efficiency, cost of capital, and replacement value. This integration creates a virtuous cycle of performance, resilience, and positive impact.

• Environmental: energy efficiency with LEED Gold® certification, up to 35% reduction in energy consumption, and 93% waste recycling.
• Social: more than 30,000 direct and indirect jobs generated, with an ecosystem that includes food services, transportation, and professional training.
• Governance: institutional management, transparency in capital allocation, and 100% compliance and occupancy.

ESG is what underpins the predictability of IBBP11: efficiency, purpose, and governance transformed into real returns and tangible economic advantage.

OUTLOOK: Why the logistics-industrial cycle is just beginning

Three pillars reinforce our conviction that the current cycle is only in its early stages:

1. Structural supply gap: Brazil has less than 2 m² of logistics GLA per capita, compared to 5 m² in the US and Europe, showing ample room for growth.
2. Neo-industrialization and regional production policy: with federal incentives for reindustrialization and state programs to attract investment, the interior of São Paulo is experiencing a new cycle of industrial expansion. Hubs such as Campinas, Jundiaí, and Jarinu are concentrating new plants and logistics centers, driving demand for high-standard warehouses and reinforcing the structural relevance of the logistics-industrial segment in Brazil.
3. More selective quality supply: the slowdown in new deliveries, expected from 2026 onwards, should exert upward pressure on rents and increase the market value of well-established funds.

At the same time, institutional capital is once again prioritizing real assets with consistent yield and structural liquidity - inherent characteristics of well-managed industrial and logistics funds. The IBBP11, alongside the inVistastrategy, brings together the elements that define this new phase: active management, institutional scale, and sustainable impact.

CONCLUSION: The future is built on fundamentals

Brazil is maturing its real-asset real estate market. This new generation of funds does not live on income alone; it creates infrastructure, drives local economies, and generates positive social and environmental impact.

The IBBP11 represents this new frontier - an industrial fund with an institutional soul and an ESG purpose, delivering consistent results and building long-term value.

At a time when stability is once again a competitive advantage, we reaffirm our conviction: The logistics-industrial cycle doesn't end in 2025—it simply evolves to a new level.

Count on us to read the market beyond the cycle.

Sources:

• Federal Government - New Industry Brazil, January 2024
• São Paulo State Government - SP Produz Program, 2025
• Metro Quadrado - "Warehouses: market expected to hit record deliveries in 2025" and "Stock delivery in SP reaches peak and is now expected to ease," October 2025
• Cushman & Wakefield - Global Industrial Real Estate Market Report, Q3 2025
• DAACAP / BNP Paribas - European Logistics Report, September 2025
• inVista Real Estate - Internal Analysis of IBBP11 Portfolio and ESG Impact, 2025

Disclaimer: This material is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation to buy, or investment recommendation. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

inVista Real Estate Insights is a biweekly series from inVista Real Estate that, through in-depth analysis and global market intelligence, offers strategic insights and reflections on the future of the real estate sector. Led by managers with 25 years of experience and a proven track record in over 23 countries, our newsletter is dedicated to investors seeking security and profitability, helping to build the future of the real estate market, brick by brick.